Air Force billion dollar COTS FUBAR

Billion-Dollar Flop: Air Force Stumbles on Software Plan
By RANDALL STROSS
Published: December 8, 2012

IN policy circles, problems that are mind-bogglingly difficult or impossible to solve, like global warming, are formally termed “wicked.”

For the United States Air Force, installing a new software system has certainly proved to be a wicked problem. Last month, it canceled a six-year-old modernization effort that had eaten up more than $1 billion. When the Air Force realized that it would cost another $1 billion just to achieve one-quarter of the capabilities originally planned — and that even then the system would not be fully ready before 2020 — it decided to decamp.

Silicon Valley sees its share of software projects that end unhappily. The most expensive failures, however, involve acquisitions of entire companies with software assets that turn out to be far less valuable than thought. Those can lead to stunning write-downs in the billions, as Hewlett-Packard has been forced to take recently.

But the Air Force’s software was not some mystery package, nor was it written from scratch. It was commercial off-the-shelf software, or “COTS” (the military can’t seem to resist any chance to use an acronym).

Installing COTS to run an enterprise is not a straightforward matter. The Air Force would have to make myriad adjustments to accommodate its individual needs, and in a military setting that would mean meetings and more meetings, unlike anything ever experienced in a Silicon Valley company. Still, it is hard to understand how the Defense Department blew a billion dollars before the plug was pulled.
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