$3 Trillion Cost Estimate for Iraq War Fiasco May Be Too Low

Apr. 6: $3 Trillion Cost Estimate for Iraq War Fiasco May Be Too Low

Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz


Guardian (United Kingdom)

Apr 06, 2008

VCS Note: The military reports 73,500 unplanned Iraq and Afghanistan war battlefield casualties, and VA reports 300,000 unexpected Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran patients, yet the Bush Administration has not provided the public with the full long-term costs of caring for our casualties and veterans. Professors Stiglitz and Bilmes use facts to estimate the cost of the Iraq War at $3 trillion - and growing - a conservative estimate.

$3 Trillion May be Too Low

April 6, 2008: - President Bush has tried to give the impression that the $3 trillion dollar estimate of the total cost of the war that we provide in our new book may be exaggerated.

We believe that it is in fact conservative. Even the president would have to admit that the $50 to $60 billion estimate given by the administration before the war was wildly off the mark; there is little reason to have confidence in their arithmetic. They admit to a cost so far of $600 billion.

Our numbers differ from theirs for three reasons: first, we are estimating the total cost of the war, under alternative conservative scenarios, derived from the defence department and congressional budget office. We are not looking at McCain's 100-year scenario - we assume that we are there, in diminished strength, only through to 2017. But neither are we looking at a scenario that sees our troops pulled out within six months. With operational spending going on at $12 billion a month, and with every year costing more than the last, it is easy to come to a total operational cost that is double the $600 billon already spent.

Second, we include war expenditures hidden elsewhere in the budget, and budgetary expenditures that we would have to incur in the future even if we left tomorrow. Most important of these are future costs of caring for the 40% of returning veterans that are likely to suffer from disabilities (in excess of $600 billion; second world war veterans' costs didn't peak until 1993), and restoring the military to its prewar strength. If you include interest, and interest on the interest - with all of the war debt financed - the budgetary costs quickly mount.

Finally, our $3 trillion dollars estimate also includes costs to the economy that go beyond the budget, for instance the cost of caring for the huge number of returning disabled veterans that go beyond the costs borne by the federal government - in one out of five families with a serious disability, someone has to give up a job. The macro-economic costs are even larger. Almost every expert we have talked to agrees that the war has had something to do with the rise in the price of oil; it was not just an accident that oil prices began to soar at the same time as the war began.
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http://www.veteransforcommonsense.org/ArticleID/9747